Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $714,246$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{680,480.2}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 124.7)}}\) (asimptote \(680,480.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18,944$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,341.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 125.5)}}\) (asimptote \(18,341.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,661$ on 2020-10-24

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,322$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,007.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 199.2)}}\) (asimptote \(13,007.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $94$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{252.6}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 244.1)}}\) (asimptote \(252.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $994$ on 2020-10-24

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $54,374$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{70,195.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 186.0)}}\) (asimptote \(70,195.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $790$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,018.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 179.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,018.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,619$ on 2020-10-24

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $194,461$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{432,957.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 229.9)}}\) (asimptote \(432,957.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,255$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,977.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 211.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,977.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,834$ on 2020-10-24

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $48,799$ on 2020-10-24

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $819$ on 2020-10-24

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42,948$ on 2020-10-24

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,530$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,349.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,349.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 58.8)}}\) (asimptote \(59.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $71$ on 2020-10-24

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $106,397$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,262.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102,262.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,187$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,931.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,931.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,397$ on 2020-10-24

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,079$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,232.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 108.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,232.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85.2}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.5)}}\) (asimptote \(85.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34$ on 2020-10-24

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Senegal recovered 76%
Burkina Faso recovered 46%
Cabo Verde recovered 13%

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,543$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,020.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,020.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $321$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{323.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 104.7)}}\) (asimptote \(323.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,061$ on 2020-10-24

Burkina Faso⮸

Population $20,903,273$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,444$ on 2020-10-24

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55.4}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 23.3)}}\) (asimptote \(55.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $382$ on 2020-10-24